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The following is a evenly edited transcript of the July 22 episode of the
Each day Blast podcast. Listen to it right here.

Greg Sargent: That is The Each day Blast from The Contemporary Republic, produced and provided by the DSR community. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.

President Trump’s propagandists are getting more frantic of their efforts to poke away the scandal round the Jeffrey Epstein recordsdata. White Dwelling press secretary Karoline Leavitt, unsurprisingly, provided the most creative poke of all, typically throwing the FBI below the bus. Nonetheless Dwelling Speaker Mike Johnson adopted a shut 2d, casting Trump’s space on the recordsdata as the head of transparency. All this comes as Trump’s approval ratings contain correct hit a unusual low, and this stuff are connected. The Epstein scandal, though it might possibly possibly most likely perhaps well well appear disconnected from people’s day after day lives, is perfectly suited to detrimental Trump in every manufacture of hidden ideas. We’re speaking about all this this day with data analyst G. Elliott Morris, author of the Strength in Numbers Substack, who has a factual unusual portion probing how the Epstein fiasco is weakening Trump. Elliott, factual to envision you.

G. Elliott Morris: Hey, thanks for having me aid.

Sargent: The Wall Avenue Journal reported closing week that Trump drew a lewd doodle in Jeffrey Epstein’s fiftieth birthday album along with some cryptic prose. Trump denies it. As a reminder, MAGA spent years promoting the premise that Epstein’s client list would account for a enormous pedophile ring among Democrats. Now Trump’s DOJ all accurate away talked about, Oh, tright here’s nothing right here. Yet, in actuality, there are true questions about whether or no longer Trump is in there or no longer. Elliott, you wrote the utterly different day that the scandal by itself is taking a toll on Trump’s approval. Are you able to toddle us thru that argument?

Morris: Positive. So at Strength in Numbers, my Substack, what we love to put out is test at an moderate of all polls over a certain quantity of time. Whereas there’s some noise in the information, when there’s a certain shift in how people feel about the president in a handy e book a rough amount of time, we’re going to even be moderately assured that we’re going to attribute that to certain events. So since July 13, there’s been a couple of two proportion point enlarge in Trump’s disapproval ranking, from 52.5 p.c of the public announcing they abhor of the job he’s doing as president to 54.5 p.c. And there’s been a corresponding decrease in his approval ranking, from about 44 p.c to about 42.5 p.c. Stare, you can give you utterly different explanations for me, perhaps, but it looks to be love the most effective possible explanation right here is the Occam’s razor one: The article that’s sucking up the total news attention that’s in particular detrimental to Trump due to the closing two years of Republican positioning on that is the one which’s affecting his approval ranking. That’s my evaluation.

Sargent: Well, I contain to focus on that at some dimension rather later, but first let’s focus on what White Dwelling press secretary Karoline Leavitt talked about when she used to be requested Monday why Trump received’t correct bid a burly release of the Epstein recordsdata. Right here’s her acknowledge.

Karoline Leavitt (audio voiceover): The president has talked about if the Division of Justice and the FBI must glide forward with releasing any further credible proof, they might perhaps well still operate so. As to why they’ve or contain no longer or will, it is possible you’ll perhaps well still quiz the FBI about that.

Sargent: So Elliott, except I’m lacking one thing, Trump undoubtedly known as for the discharge of the massive jury testimony, which is undoubtedly unlikely to be revelatory. Nonetheless it absolutely is critical that the White Dwelling badly needs Trump to appear skilled-transparency. She’s now fobbing it off on the FBI as if Trump couldn’t bid the FBI to release the recordsdata. Your thoughts on that?

Morris: Yeah, it looks to be unlikely to me, given every thing else Trump is able to put out with a snap of his finger, that if he wanted burly transparency, he wouldn’t gather it from his hang FBI, especially with the people who’re running the FBI this day, Kash Patel and Dan Bongino. So it correct looks to be glaring that there’s some roadblock that we’re no longer seeing. And by come of public thought, the public has the same opinion with that. Reuters/Ipsos polled people between July 15 and 16 and requested them if they agreed with the assertion, “The executive is hiding Epstein’s alleged client list,” and 70 p.c of people talked about that they agreed with that. As well they agreed with the assertion, “The executive is hiding data on Epstein’s loss of life,” which I do know we don’t necessarily must touch and I’m no longer particular how critical we judge that. Nonetheless correct that might perhaps well well properly be some degree in the case that the public sees that one thing is occurring in the aid of the scenes right here. And I mediate that’s the motive in the aid of Karoline Leavitt’s comments, as properly.

Sargent: Well, you talked about Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, so I contain to point out for oldsters who Kash Patel, the FBI director, and Dan Bongino, the FBI deputy director, had been among the many leading promoters of the premise that the Epstein recordsdata contained this explosive problem of revelations, aid when they had been colossal MAGA influencers. They had been put into the deep negate partly to blow the lid off the deep negate and point to everyone that that scandal that had been festering for many years used to be undoubtedly there. So it’s this outlandish poetic justice for them to be getting thrown below the bus right here. Nonetheless but another time, the desperation to appear skilled-transparency is palpable. That’s the article.

Morris: Yeah. And folks operate desire the transparency. While you quiz them, “Have to the chief release the total paperwork it has about Jeffrey Epstein?” that’s an 80–20 bid. They’re clearly reading public thought right here in that the people desire the information. After which the following quiz is love, “Why are they no longer getting it?” and that’s, I relate, the put we’re going to even still be a lot more speculative.

Sargent: Well, Leavitt talked about one thing else of exact point to that I desire people to hearken to. She used to be requested about the news that FBI agents going thru the Epstein recordsdata had been urged to flag any mentions of Trump. Listen to her acknowledge.

Leavitt (audio voiceover): I don’t judge that’s one thing the White Dwelling used to be conscious of. You’d want to quiz the FBI.

Sargent: Now that’s correct preposterous. The 2d that that came out—it came out closing Friday—Karoline Leavitt and the White Dwelling would were on the mobile phone with Pam Bondi, the authorized skilled total, in about three seconds, discovering out precisely what the deal used to be with whether or no longer there used to be a directive to FBI agents to flag mentions of Trump. And so that they’d contain gotten an acknowledge. So I mediate it’s ravishing rattling telling that they’re no longer announcing, No, it’s no longer loyal. They’re announcing, Creep to the FBI, but another time.

Morris: Yeah, that’s correct traditional obfuscation by the press secretary, factual? In the occasion that they might perhaps well bid no, then they’d bid no. They are saying no the total time when they don’t contain data on their facet. This press secretary … how does The Contemporary York Cases call it? Stretches the truth, presumably? So that they might perhaps well be stretching the truth further right here if they desire, but as a exchange you gather the redirection to the FBI. So I agree. I mediate that’s ravishing telling of what’s occurring in the aid of the scenes right here.

Sargent: Yeah, there’s correct no likelihood that they wouldn’t contain gotten to the bottom of this. I contain to be certain [on] how this emerged so people know, because it’s a terribly principal flip on this entire fable and perhaps people passed over it. Senator Dick Durbin despatched a letter to Attorney Frequent Pam Bondi on Friday announcing that his office had bought data that FBI agents going thru the Epstein recordsdata had been tasked with flagging mentions of Trump. And in that letter, Senator Durbin also demanded that Pam Bondi make truly a list of flags of Trump’s name. Now, I mediate there’s little or no likelihood that there might be an acknowledge from Attorney Frequent Bondi on that time, but what Dick Durbin there did used to be one thing really rather unparalleled. I don’t know what the premise for his data used to be, but this used to be a extraordinarily serious congressional letter. It used to be no longer correct some tossed-off thing on a podcast, or one thing, love this one. It used to be an legit letter to the authorized skilled total from the ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, announcing, Now we contain gotten confidential data to this end. It’s ravishing explosive stuff.

The motive I ship this up, Elliott, is that this is the sort of match—this letter—that might perhaps well continue the media maelstrom, which in flip will get the public more and more more targeted on this. What are you seeing in the polling there? Are you seeing love a marked uptick in true hobby by the public? Because I’m waiting for if Democrats can stoke this more this come and more questions gather aired out in the media, the public will get more and more more targeted on it.

Morris: Yes. So we requested about this in our July Strength in Numbers and Verasight poll, which has correct come out this morning. We requested people to recall what they’ve viewed in the news over the closing month. And though our poll passed over, I mediate, the head of the Epstein controversy, it still shows up in the answers. About 10 p.c of people bid they’ve heard one thing about executive scandals, let’s call it. Most of that is about Epstein, but additionally people will point out the FBI without announcing Epstein’s name. That’s the superb fable about the FBI in the news really, so I mediate we’re going to moderately relate that that’s in there. For comparability, about 15 p.c of people bid immigration and deportations, and much fewer people, love 5 p.c, bid the colossal, aesthetic invoice. So Epstein is ranking someplace closest to the most covered fable in the administration factual now and twice as critical as the superb legislative fable. So I mediate it’s ravishing impactful, and other people are undoubtedly deciding on up on this. It’s a ways great that the White Dwelling might perhaps well well be attempting to gather sooner than the backlash that we’ve been seeing in the polls as properly.

Sargent: Well, as a student of public thought, are you able to focus on a little bit about why we’re going to even still protect up for that issues love this Durbin letter and utterly different interventions by Democrats that time of curiosity the media on this bid have a tendency to gin up more public hobby about it? That is one thing you public thought kinds obsess over ravishing continuously.

Morris: Yeah. So that is the worst bid for Trump, and that’s one thing to underscore. In an moderate of polls that I calculated closing Friday—so a couple of days worn now—17 p.c of people talked about they approve of the come Trump’s handling “the Jeffrey Epstein recordsdata,” and 59 p.c of people abhor. That’s a minus-42 gather ranking. Again, for comparability, [with] inflation, which is scandalous for any president, in particular scandalous over the closing two years, that’s minus 20. So people feel about twice as scandalous as they feel about inflation—one thing that sank the closing presidency—in direction of Trump’s handling of the Epstein recordsdata. To acknowledge to your point, it’s still early in the news cycle for this, and the White Dwelling shows no ticket of slowing it down. So if they don’t hang concrete steps in direction of giving the public what they desire—which is, as they bid, burly transparency, but [which they] aren’t giving—then we’re going to place confidence in that that minus-42 ranking is correct going to rob care of wearing on the White Dwelling as the unusual cycle wears on.

Sargent: And I mediate a coordinated message has gone out among high Republicans. We had Dwelling Speaker Mike Johnson also commentary on whether or no longer there might be a Dwelling vote compelling release of the Epstein recordsdata. Listen to this.

Mike Johnson (audio voiceover): So right here’s what I would bid about the Epstein recordsdata: There is no longer a daylight hours between the Dwelling Republicans, the Dwelling, and the president on most transparency. He has talked about that he needs the total credible recordsdata connected to Epstein to be launched. He’s requested the authorized skilled total to demand the massive jury recordsdata of the court docket. All of that is in direction of factual now. My perception is we want the administration to contain the house to put out what it is doing. And that if further congressional action is wanted or appropriate, then we’ll test at that. Nonetheless I don’t mediate we’re at that time factual now because we have faith the president.

Reporter (audio voiceover): So no vote after the choice?

Johnson (audio voiceover): No. No.

Sargent: So right here Johnson but another time conflates releasing the massive jury testimony with releasing the recordsdata. Present, but another time, the bid to painting Trump as supremely clear. Cherish I talked about, the message does appear coordinated. They’ve bought to be having a test at identical data to what you’re speaking about right here. And let me quiz this, Elliott, if I might perhaps well well: Tright here’s going to come aid some degree when Dwelling Republicans gather a ways more nervous about this, aren’t they?

Morris: Yeah, and I mediate that time’s bought to come aid ravishing soon. So we know that Trump’s really unpopular with all voters, but he’s also unpopular with Republicans, the forms of people that vote in the main elections. Those are still about nine months away, but hiya, you’re continuously campaigning in the occasion you’re in Congress, factual? So in a Reuters/Ipsos poll closing week, 35 p.c of Republicans bid they approve of the come Trump’s handling this. Trump’s approval ranking with Republicans is most ceaselessly 90 p.c, so the truth that he’s at 35 is ravishing telling. If these people are having a test to indicators from their constituency about what to put out next, they’re going to be getting quite a lot of really detrimental feedback about the president’s draw right here. And I feel about either they exchange direction and they also acknowledge to the public or they acknowledge to their social gathering leader. And what determines how they acknowledge to that is: Who’s the loudest in the interval in-between? Are they paying more attention to Twitter and other people yelling at them, or are they getting a bunch of mobile phone calls from Trump and the White Dwelling?

Sargent: Well, you wrote this portion attempting to dig into why that is so problematic for Trump. I contain to study rather from it, “By siding with Epstein and in opposition to transparency, Trump seriously injures his status as an outsider combating the ‘deep negate’ for God and nation. Significant of the conspiratorial flit of the Republican Occasion has been arguing that Epstein used to be in bed with main Democratic donors and utterly different political elites—by refusing to facet in opposition to them, Trump implicitly sides with them.” He’s the traitor to his class, in a come, to appropriate the FDR conception. He’s the actual person who’s going to glide in and avenge the people by showing them how elites rigged the machine of their favor, how immoral their globalist schemes are etc. So I mediate you’re really getting at one thing very principal there. This cuts in opposition to his political mystique at a extraordinarily deep stage.

Morris: And it’s no longer correct his mystique, as you call it. It’s his total “worth-add” in the Republican Occasion. In the 2016 main, that’s the reason Trump beats Cruz and Rubio. In 2024, that’s the reason Trump outperforms with younger males who would otherwise be liberals. It’s because they feel love the machine is immoral; especially at a time of inflation, they feel love it’s no longer giving them what they want. When there’s many of these narratives about the elites being in bed with some pedophilic ring and retaining it up and Trump says, I’m able to repair it. I alone can uncover the fable for you—when he doesn’t operate that, when he looks to be to be undoubtedly continuing to screen stuff up, then he loses quite a lot of credibility. And this isn’t … tright here’s many of tales love that over Trump’s term, but it does appear love this one is irregular; there’s quite a lot of staying vitality. In most of Trump’s term, there’s many of news events and you progress on every two or three days. This has been the lead fable for two weeks, at this point. And since he really bought in the aid of it in the 2024 marketing campaign and so critical of the social gathering used to be in the aid of the transparency, for him to flip round in fully the unsuitable come, I mediate, is hurting him in a distinct come that we haven’t viewed sooner than.

Sargent: Right. He’s typically in on the elite screen-up. That’s no longer an exaggeration. That’s truly what’s precisely occurring.

Morris: Yeah, he has chosen his facet very publicly in a come that he will presumably be attacked for by his social gathering one day, I feel about.

Sargent: And it’s attention-grabbing how sharp Johnson and Leavitt are working to imprecise that that’s his true space. That’s really what’s at bid right here with the throwing of the FBI below the bus. That’s typically, Hey, we’d admire to contain the recordsdata accessible. Creep focus on with Kash.

Morris: Yeah, this does raise the quiz of, Who’s going to out-Trump Trump on the Epstein recordsdata? And we pain about what that figure looks to be love over the following four years. Nonetheless yeah, he has chosen the facet that he used to be previously no longer connected to very publicly. Marjorie Taylor Greene is announcing he needs to be more clear. Even Marjorie Taylor Greene is no longer on Trump’s facet right here, so we’re going to place confidence in that that’s going to contain some charges. As we gather more data, we’ll potentially test these charges kick in.

Sargent: I correct must secure on what you talked about about younger males. For certain, younger males are the success fable for Trump of the 2024 cycle—the incels and these kinds, the total Joe Rogan–vote kinds, etc. They’re the more conspiratorial, “anti-machine” voters that Trump used to be in an area to accumulate over. You operate mediate this charges him with that demographic? And does that topic in the midterms though? How operate you test all that playing out? These are potentially the forms of voters that might possibly sit down out a midterm, but I would place confidence in that Trump would like them to flip out on his facet—on the facet of the Republican Occasion—precisely since the midterm electorate is going to be made up of extremely educated, extremely motivated voters who lean Democratic.

Morris: Yeah. In 2024, analysts made plenty about the podcast voters. These are the people who had been activated by Joe Rogan and Theo Von and such. Both of these podcasters contain come out in opposition to Trump prior to now two weeks, asking, Where are the many of of thousands of hours of tape? They teach, I mediate, it is a rather credible quiz from Rogan, let’s bid. So if we’re asking the put the people who they introduced to the Trump camp are going to glide, they’re potentially going to follow the actual individual that introduced them there. They’re no longer Trump podcast watchers. They’re Joe Rogan watchers. That’s the actual person they have faith. That’s the actual person they’ve a parasocial relationship with, to make use of the podcast marketing [term]. And as you bid, they’re rather conspiratorial, and yes, they’re disengaged. Nonetheless every vote issues. If turnout on this neighborhood is handiest 30 p.c as a exchange of 40 p.c, that’s still many people who the Republicans had been counting on and had counted on in 2024 to accumulate that they’re losing now for that reason very excessive-profile flip-flop.

Sargent: I’ve bought to teach, it’s awfully inconvenient for Trump and Dwelling Republicans that the people now sounding the loudest calls for transparency on this topic are Dwelling Democrats, factual?

Morris: Yeah. And the most favorite half of the identification among this neighborhood are independents, so I mediate they’re very seemingly to acknowledge that messaging in a come that your Republican younger males aren’t seemingly to. There’s many people … there’s quite a lot of votes right here that might perhaps well well properly be moved.

Sargent: Charming stuff. Elliott Morris, thanks so critical for speaking to us, man. It’s going to gather really, really loopy.

Morris: Yeah, that is potentially regarded as one of the more attention-grabbing tales I’ve covered in my closing 10 years. Thanks for having me on, Greg.